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27 Dec 2023

Silver lurches higher as markets wrap up 2023, XAG/USD rebounds from $24.00

  • XAG/USD caught a bounce from $24.00 to retest $24.40.
  • Silver markets are churning as investors weigh Fed rate cut odds.
  • Despite the bullish lean, Silver remains capped below $24.60.

XAG/USD caught a broad-market risk appetite surge on Wednesday as investors continue to lean heavily into bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start cutting interest rates in 2024, with some expecting the first cuts to begin as soon as March of next year.

Silver up on broad-market sentiment shift, but remains weighed down, gains limited

Spot Silver is leaning notably bullish as markets wrap up 2023 with a thin, shortened post-holiday trading week, keeping XAG/USD pinned into a familiar but rough near-term range, caught between $24.00 and $24.60.

US Treasury yields are easing back and the US Dollar is slumping further as investors pile into Fed rate cut bets, with the US 2-year Treasury yield slipping to 4.26% after starting Wednesday near 4.3%. As investors ramp up risk bids on rate cut expectations, the 2-year Treasury yield has fallen to its lowest level since May of this year, but Silver is seeing only limited knock-on bidding from broad-market risk flows.

XAG/USD Technical Outlook

Spot Silver caught a batch of bids back into the $24.40 region after seeing a sloppy bounce from the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $24.10, and XAG/USD is now caught into familiar congestion points that have plagued Spot Silver markets in the near-term.

XAG/USD has spent most of the year trapped in a rough cyclical pattern, circling the 200-day SMA near $23.50 as Silver struggles to capitalize meaningfully on broad-market Greenback bearishness.

The outlook heading into 2024 is leaning cautiously bullish as the 50-day SMA gears up for a bullish cross of the 200-day SMA, which could provide technical support for any pullbacks, but topside momentum remains limited and could pose a risk for any overextended long buildups.

XAG/USD Hourly Chart

XAG/USD Daily Chart

XAG/USD Technical Levels

 

Dec 27, 2023

EUR/USD surges over 1.1100 as markets continue to bet on Fed rate cuts

The EUR/USD is gaining ground in thin post-holiday markets as investors gear up for the new year and head towards 2024 with sentiment leaning notably risk-on, pushing the US Dollar (USD) down once more in the last partial trading week of the year.
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Dec 27, 2023

United States 5-Year Note Auction down to 3.801% from previous 4.42%

United States 5-Year Note Auction down to 3.801% from previous 4.42%
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