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12 Apr 2013
Forex Flash: The BoK is becoming more independent - BBH
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Brown Brothers Harriman analysts believe that the Bank of Korea is becoming more independent.
They note that the BoK left rates unchanged at 2.75% as they had expected, but contrary to consensus expectations pricing in a 25 bp cut. They think there are three factors which underpinned the decision, and which markets may have incorrectly under weighted: (1) A more measured approach to monetary easing makes sense in light of the upcoming fiscal stimulus; (2) KRW is down nearly 6% YTD against the dollar already; (3) growing BOK independence. They write, “As many observers have already pointed out, there are signs that the BOK is trying to distance itself from the Blue House. For example, the Finance Minister is no longer attending BOK meetings, and Governor Kim reportedly did not attend a traditional high profile policy making breakfast at the Blue House last Friday.”
They note that the BoK left rates unchanged at 2.75% as they had expected, but contrary to consensus expectations pricing in a 25 bp cut. They think there are three factors which underpinned the decision, and which markets may have incorrectly under weighted: (1) A more measured approach to monetary easing makes sense in light of the upcoming fiscal stimulus; (2) KRW is down nearly 6% YTD against the dollar already; (3) growing BOK independence. They write, “As many observers have already pointed out, there are signs that the BOK is trying to distance itself from the Blue House. For example, the Finance Minister is no longer attending BOK meetings, and Governor Kim reportedly did not attend a traditional high profile policy making breakfast at the Blue House last Friday.”